Has the bubble burst???

[sparkywig]

some very interesting views have been submitted here, all iam going to say on the subject and i hope not to
offend but i can remember a time when you could find a bus in a field offer the farmer £50 and he thought you were
doing him a favour. in recent years a new breed of van owner has emerged onto the scene, one that seems to be led
by some sort of magazine culture with just a handful of celebs thrown in for good measure, a tv cook springs to mind.
the end result has been a rise in bus prices that to me seems all out of proportion, dont get me wrong as a bay owner
i would stand to gain by this due to the fact that i purchased my van back in 99 at just £300 of course i have spent some time and money doing her up but i would have never in a million years thought that i would have a bus in 2012 worth
about 8 to 10k, of course its not just the van prices that have risen parts have also gone way up, ive just been looking through some of my early volksworld mags from the 90s, eg you could buy a pair of lowering beam adjusters for £25 now its
£100, CHRIST!. well iam nearly at the end of my rant i will finish by saying that when all the in it for a minute people with more money than sense have got bored and moved onto another hobby i will still be owning, driving, fixing vw's just like
i have been doing for the past 25 years. if the bubble bursts it might bring parts prices down which would enable me to keep
my pride and joy alive for many more years to come, i have no intention to sell my bus unless the **** really hits the fan
like job loss etc.

I am of the same opinion.

 

[Trikky2]

some very interesting views have been submitted here, all iam going to say on the subject and i hope not to
offend but i can remember a time when you could find a bus in a field offer the farmer £50 and he thought you were
doing him a favour. in recent years a new breed of van owner has emerged onto the scene, one that seems to be led
by some sort of magazine culture with just a handful of celebs thrown in for good measure, a tv cook springs to mind.
the end result has been a rise in bus prices that to me seems all out of proportion, dont get me wrong as a bay owner
i would stand to gain by this due to the fact that i purchased my van back in 99 at just £300 of course i have spent some time and money doing her up but i would have never in a million years thought that i would have a bus in 2012 worth
about 8 to 10k, of course its not just the van prices that have risen parts have also gone way up, ive just been looking through some of my early volksworld mags from the 90s, eg you could buy a pair of lowering beam adjusters for £25 now its
£100, CHRIST!. well iam nearly at the end of my rant i will finish by saying that when all the in it for a minute people with more money than sense have got bored and moved onto another hobby i will still be owning, driving, fixing vw's just like
i have been doing for the past 25 years. if the bubble bursts it might bring parts prices down which would enable me to keep
my pride and joy alive for many more years to come, i have no intention to sell my bus unless the **** really hits the fan
like job loss etc.

Its not just buses, its not just VWs, its even not just cars. Its something that has always been the case with anything collectable.

Stuff becomes old. Most of it gets thrown away. A few people keep and like it. A few younger people decide they like it too and buy it cheap. Meanwhile the stuff is getting older and older. Then a few start collecting/doing it up. Then it gets more popular. Then it starts going up in price. Then it gets expensive.

Look at the prices of all sorts of collectors cars and antiques. You cant buy a tidy 2CV for less than 5k these days. My father bought a 1934 Lagonda drop head in the early sixties for £90 because nobody wanted them then. Time moves on.

 

[KevH]

...if the bubble bursts it might bring parts prices down which would enable me to keep
my pride and joy alive for many more years to come,

If the bubble bursts for us owners, it also bursts for the supply trade. Don't count on cheaper parts, they are mainly cheap because the market is bouyant, and when/if it drops through the floor, the supplier market will follow suit.

 

[bus72]

...if the bubble bursts it might bring parts prices down which would enable me to keep
my pride and joy alive for many more years to come,

If the bubble bursts for us owners, it also bursts for the supply trade. Don't count on cheaper parts, they are mainly cheap because the market is bouyant, and when/if it drops through the floor, the supplier market will follow suit.

well yes kev you make a good point it just seems to me though that just using the vw or the word camper in a sentence
will triple the price of said part :lol: another example would be say a t4 one on ebay ex builders van with 150.000 mile on it
whats it really worth? well put the same advert on fleabay and put t4 camper project and bingo double the price. of course
this is just my opinion for what it's worth and its not meant to offend any one who is making a living from the currant market

 

[KevH]

...if the bubble bursts it might bring parts prices down which would enable me to keep
my pride and joy alive for many more years to come,

If the bubble bursts for us owners, it also bursts for the supply trade. Don't count on cheaper parts, they are mainly cheap because the market is bouyant, and when/if it drops through the floor, the supplier market will follow suit.

well yes kev you make a good point it just seems to me though that just using the vw or the word camper in a sentence
will triple the price of said part :lol: another example would be say a t4 one on ebay ex builders van with 150.000 mile on it
whats it really worth? well put the same advert on fleabay and put t4 camper project and bingo double the price. of course
this is just my opinion for what it's worth and its not meant to offend any one who is making a living from the currant market

I can't disagree, although why anybody would buy a T4 anyway is a mystery to me. But that's another story altogether. Again, no offence meant .

 

[marcher]

I'm so glad that everyone has a view on the thread i started :lol: :lol:
nothing like a great english debate. :lol: :lol:

 

[lard]

My theory goes...

In the same way that an artists paintings jump in value as soon as they die - people realise that supply is limited and demand grows exponentially (as long as it's a good artist) - transpose this simple analogy to any other object that has gone past the depreciation point - when the availability of them goes past the point when there are surplus items in the market compared to demand

The demand increases as more people become aware of their value (not monetary as such but lifestyle based in the case of VW) - this has been highlighted by the appeal of the classic VW brand in marketing to associate a particular lifestyle or message, perhaps of times gone by when things were simpler, like getting in your camper and heading off into the unknown

So this increase in awareness into mainstream society from the relatively small community when they were in surplus - coupled with the reduced supply of vehicles - means that we now have more buyers than vehicles and the perceived value increases of each one as it would in any market

But as with any commodity (apologies for referring to the market in VW's in this way but it helps explain my theory!) external pressures will affect value - in a recession goods that are deemed as luxuries (i.e. you could live and feed your family without a classic VW) will be affected by a smaller number of potential buyers and the supply vs demand balance is redressed slightly - those who can afford luxuries will be looking for the best possible example, the entry level buyer will either wait and see what is happening with personal circumstances or reduce their capitol but still attempt to buy the best condition vehicle they can

This would manifest in decent buses at previously sensible money taking longer to sell with more competition from similar vehicles, meaning they don't sell or reduce in price to meet the buyers capability - whilst exceptional vehicles will still enjoy the same ratio of buyers to vehicles

Not to add into this the recession meaning that more vehicles may be on the market further driving down value - but like all markets they can go down as well as up - and the fact that there has been sustained investment in vehicles so confidence is high, I'm sure once people have more disposable income they will go back to their previous levels

Certainly now is the time to buy (if you believe we are heading out of recession!) - otherwise I'd sit tight, ride out the storm and sell when we are in better financial times - don't think the bubble has burst (meaning people have realised that perceived value is too high and it's an adjustment in value in the market ala dotcom burst) - think it's more just another sign that we are in a recession and value will drop, and not just our buses but everything that fits into this category

Suppose the trick is to spot the next big thing, would have to be an exceptional piece of engineering that conveys a particular lifestyle that there is currently a surplus in the market off......V8 petrol range rover anyone?

I should clarify..I didn't buy my bus to associate with a brand, I didn't buy my bus as an investment, I didn't buy my bus because I'd never seen/considered them until I saw one on the TV - always wanted one, couldn't afford one til now (bear in mind that everything was expensive when I bought my first ever car (a Triumph spitfire)) - it's taken me this long to work up to a VW and everything else has been going up in value at the same time.....I can however say that my bus is the first vehicle I've ever bought that will go up in value - which is just another of it's many appeals, and why I love it so much

 

[Trikky2]

Very true lard.

Theres one other thing I would like to add.

There are still people out there who have savings rather than debts, despite a taxation system that actively discourages saving and does its best to absorb it all as quickly as possible.

When those people see the derogatory rates of interest being offered by the greedy banks and the ridiculously overreacting stock market (that gives the appearance of being be run by a bunch of panicking macaque monkeys who crash the price of stocks based on a rumor that something might happen which is likely to affect the economy by 0.00000000000001%) - these savers start to look at what else they can do with their money.

Spotting the next "big thing" is very hard because your trying to predict behavior. Despite having been into the classic market since the 1970's, if somebody had told me back then that my camper would be worth 14K and that Messerschmidt bubble cars would auction for 25K I would have laughed at them.

 

[mattd]

Thinking of Lard's analogy same happened to supermarkets, recession bites and it is the middle ground that suffers. People still go to Lidl and Waitrose but the middle ground has people 'down shopping'.

The market for high end (RHD, full restro) and low end (project) buses is still there, you see them sell all the time but the middle is squeezed and until people have confidence to spend cash for cars or job security drives more bank loans then it will only be project hunters or cash rich buyers unless you are patient.

 

[Mr Brightside]

I should clarify..I didn't buy my bus to associate with a brand, I didn't buy my bus as an investment, I didn't buy my bus because I'd never seen/considered them until I saw one on the TV - always wanted one, couldn't afford one til now

Thats exactly my thoughts Lard, always wanted one, was never in a position to afford the one I wanted (either time wise or money wise).

But as everything in life, time slips by, work is always way too busy, but having the Camper was something for the whole family, the kids just love it, & I kinda enjoy it too.......

 

[hipshaker]

Similar for me although I hadn't always wanted one. My interest was sparked by borrowing a couple for weekends and loving them. I don't have any long term interest in VWs as such.

I chose a bay because they seemed to give the perfect mix of classic looks and usability. I also thought that as there were so many VWs still sround that relianility must be good and there'd be a good market in spares/accessories too. I liked the look of earlybays a bit more ....... although if my computer/internet had worked properly I'd be the owner of a very nice łatebay that was advertised locally!

I note a comment previously that seems to try to categorise "right reasons" for owning campers etc ........ reminds me a little of the scooter scene where some feel they gave some sort of ownership moral high ground. Each to their own I say!

As for the bubble bursting? Well I guess that's only of real importance to buyers and sellers. But prices will always fluctuate a bit. People shouldn't be losing too much value unless they bought unwisely ....... But having said that surely if the camper gets good use then good value has been had too.