Is the Bus Bubble going to Burst ??????????

[Gadget Boy]

At sum point its all gotta go wrong hasnt it .............

Its all right for all of us old boys who've now been in the scene far too long im on me 17th yr in jan ...OOH er :shock:

we could buy em all cheap back in the day


But i now see traders are having sum difficulty shifting stock


WHAT are peoples thoughts on this .........

PLEASE discuss


Gadget

 

[Shaggy]

Well i dont know much about the scene, but im guess whats happening or going to happen is the market will get flooded a it will be hard to sell them as not everyone wants them so prices may come down a little, but i think they are more likely to stabilise for abit then prices will only ever go up with not only inflation but also the fact others will rot and not many people will want to spend the money to keep them, plus with oil prices rising more will go on the scrap then less and less will be around and i hope people will still keep them.

I think the bubble will just get to a level plain then start rising again.

But as for my thoughts, im sure reversing is faster than going forward

 

[Bus'Tup]

I suppose the prices will have to rise, but its hard to see them getting any higher for a few years. I think the prices they have reached now they will stay at for a good few years, theres just been a recent boom in popularity & demand, loads of people importing them now too....some at silly money too.

 

[slammedresto]

they have been saying it about houses for ages

if the demands there, it will keep going

 

[Clem]

I think the split/bay market will continue, albeit steadily. The demand continues and despite the imports coming in, old UK vans are still rotton as fook
I bought a UK fat chick Westy a month ago for what the seller was asking. I sold it as soon as the docs were in my name for more than three times that amount via eBay ...... the demand continues!
Im glad I have the 'positive equity' in my bus though!
The wedge market I reckon will be short lived though. Those who move onto Wedges full time have turned away from the 'old school' and seem able/willing to move onto T4/T5s quite easily. It just becomes a useful van thats a VW at that point ....

 

[Tissy]

shock.... hmm thats the problem theres not much stock to shift!.. and if you don't like selling any old poop then it's even worse

 

[lobus]

Good topic for comments.
Personally I think prices may have levelled out a bit for buses (both types). Restored units seem to be selling for a lot less than they cost to resto, but that is the same for all the older style cars I know of. My brother bought a 1962 Chrysler Valiant for 8K and the seller spent well over 20 on it. My bro's good luck I say!
If you are lucky enough to locate a bus that is owned by someone who is not "into" the scene as it is currently I think there are still bargains there.

IMHO it is all the internet's fault, when I got back into buses in 1995 (T3 Waterboxer) I had no idea of the resto/old school scene that was happening here in Melbourne.

Around 1998 I got online and quick as a flash I was driving interstate for the Aus Nationals in Sydney and away I went. Next thing you know I am involved in a whole international thing going on, with me using the web to find parts for my panel that would have taken forever to find by the older ways of searching.
In the meantime I have made friends and met up with a whole bunch of nutbags who share my enthusiasm for VWs so it has been all good so far.

So while it might be the net's fault, there is a fair sized silver lining that has come with it.

P.S. With the amount of Australian buses getting shipped to the Uk the prices here are skyrocketing, particularly for Pop top campers. They have doubled on average in the last couple of years. I don't know what they have increased like over on your side of the world but it must be something similar.

 

[Anonymous]

my 2 penny-worth ...


agree with much of whats been said ... here in the UK the bus thing has gone quite mainstream -plenty of people like the idea of getting a 'trendy' camper (nothing wrong with that - they're very practical) - but also seems we are being inundated with US imports at the moment ...

reckon theres a lot of dealers cashing in - not all of them very scrupulous ...

Few months ago spoke to the owner of one of the biggest names in the VW spares business - he saw it all with the 'Beetle bubble' 10-15 years ago before vans were big - everyone jumped on the band wagon and creamed the scene and ended up killing it off - values of beetles went silly and then came right down again ...

 

[MMMC]

I agree with earlybay - I have a beetle stored away in my dads garage...its been there for over 10 years. I want to get it back on the road...the problem is I could pick up a mint Beetle now for less than it would cost me to get mine back on the road. During the beetle boom prices went mental but have seriuosly backed down now....however I don't think there was as much importing back then.

My bus is an import and I did pay through the nose for it - heart before head....but I did get a great rot free bus that will last me for years....I think prices will flatten out but imports will continue because the pound is so strong against the dollar.

 

[Araon]

to me it has absolutely nothing to do with the money...

its only as valuable as the person buying it wants and since I like a bargain that means its not valuable at all (tight as a gnats) that goes for spares and cars.

I love the old VWs from my oldest memories as a kid in germany using my dads old bug as a slide....

When I hear the sound of that aircooled block I almost snap my neck turning to see it...

The scene, the people (ok there are a few tossas out there, but on the whole), tinkering away on a sunday morning whilst the diners in the oven, tinkering away on the hard shoulder in the pissing rain its all character building stuff..and at the end of the day you can be proud to say I saved that piece of steel and rubber from the crusher, I got that bit of junk working with grit and determination...hey I can wear that streak of oil on my cheek with pride Hey I may not know what I'm talking about but judicious use of a BFH and a spanner

I love the history the style the practicalities

So the bubble as you say has no bearing in what I do in the scene, If it cost me a fortune then hey thats what i was willing to pay at the time no ones forcing me to spend the cash they didnt frog march me to the cash machine,you should always approach the scene with a figure in your head as with any purchase your doing, that money is what you have burning a hole and is not going to put you on the streets, if the value increases well who gives a feck I aint selling, I expect to keep my earlybay, to be burried in it or cremated (hopefully dead already and not due to dodgy fuel lines).

If your a trader having probs selling stock hey its simple drop yer fecking prices persuade peeps to build up there own stock of some of the harder to locate parts. Turnover, lower profit margin, more profit.

Porsche-Pon-Hirst-Nordoff I salute you all for making my life all the more fun and complete

My two penneth worth

 

[Justin & Muttley]

I bought my first car (a '74 bug) 17 years ago just before bug prices rocketed, I used it, abused it and thoroughly enjoyed owning it until the need for something with a little less tin-worm got the better of me!

I think prices are too high at the moment, but as the old adage goes 'it's only worth what someone will pay for it'. Splitty prices are still mental and this has meant that bays have become a popular alternative, guess what - the price of bays then goes up and people switch over to T25's as an affordable alternative - many will back out of the scene as they can't justify silly rebuild costs, which is a shame.

I think bay prices will fall, in time - I've seen some bays for sale for £15k+ and unless you're talking about a very special VW that's just too much IMHO.

I also think that imports will slow down too - for some the thought of a LHD bus doesn't appeal, but there's a fad for 'patina' that doesn't appeal to all either - some people just want an honest bus they can learn some new skills on (welding etc) - especially if they can't afford a restored bus from the start. As more buses are imported the prices in the States will rise (they're not stupid, you know) and we'll be back to square one.

All we can hope for is that the scene remains friendly and fun, and that not too many people are ripped off and put off the VW scene for ever.

 

[Gazza]

Hi Guys,

Well so good points and for someone like me i am stuck in the middle as i would love a nice RHD camper but with the prices they are now days i have no chance :shock:

I wouldn't have time to but a big project job due to commitments so for me this is a no go i need a solid bus that needs some TLC and perhaps some minor repairs and say a new inside etc but even these are still expensive.That then lead to the imports which are as people say normally rust free and normally much cheaper but even some of these are now demanding higher prices

I would not wish for the bubble to burst and loads of people lose lots of £££££££ but it would be nice if some of them are priced accordingly so that if you paid £5k for a bus you still wouldn't have to spend silly money on it.

 

[Araon]

I wouldnt say imports are normally rust free, that is a big misconception there are plenty of dogs out there...
I know last year Volksheaven got stung quite badly thinking that.
The chances are that an import through the conventional channels are comparrably above average.
Anyway whats wrong with drivig a left hooker, its ot that big a vehicle to bother about

 

[Clem]

I wouldnt say imports are normally rust free, that is a big misconception

Youre bang on there. All but the best have cab floors and battery tray issues at least, but youre right, its the structure that counts.

 

[Gazza]

OK fair point so do the UK ones weather better than an import which to someone like myself may be the only way to get going on a shoestring :?: :? :?

If so help me out guys am i looking in the wrong places if so give me some help please :? :? :? :? :?

 

[Araon]

how much you want to spend on a motably motor?
how much time are you willing to put into getting it as you want?
how much money are you expecting to spend in sorting it out?

you put a figure of 5K in your last point, well go straight to your Kieft en Klok ads and youll find a good driveable motor for that that will get you well on your way. 5K with people like Volksheaven will get you a good rot free cal import. 7k and you are talking a good uk motor sorted. fbi have usually got some good motors.

think about exactly what you want, tintops, westys', deluxe etc. go with an idea of what you want from your bus, full on camper from day one, interior project, chill bus/day bus....

check your local autotrader/papers theres some real surprises out there, i just missed out on a real bargain, microbus deluxe, spotless one owner (vw mechanic passed away) 3k.

 

[easy]

I think the bus prices will level off once as a lot of maximums have been reached now. Splits selling for tons of cash, but they can only be bought buy "rich buyers" and not your average dooood. So the prices people will pay for a van will not get much higher than present.

Prices are in general going up, but thats probably because more and more buses are being done up to q higher standard due to the increase in parts etc. However there is still a huge market for quality product and that has not been tapped into yet.i.e stainless stuff like hubcaps etc, decent carbs built at reasonable prices in the UK. Also quality repros like rubbers, just need someone to make ones that fit would be a start.

Buses are still a good investment i think and the only way is up. Advertising in general is going barmy for vans at the mo. 8)

Roll on the bus and dont worry if you havent got one yet there are plenty of bargains still to be had. A friend just got a late bay all ready to rock and roll for £800 :shock: bargains abound just need to know where to look! and thats not flee bay its in your street or ya mates

 

[Araon]

Gazza start here get some pics see if it has bellypan still attached, get him to show pics of the jack points and all the other usual rot spots

http://forum.earlybay.com/viewtopic.php?t=2568

 

[slammedkustom]

i hope the bubble bursts, the vw scene is becoming a rich mans games.
busses are more of an investment now, its a shame but it will blow over eventually... i hope

ten years back the vw scene was a lot more "fun" but saying that i am glad that bays are getting the credit they deserve rather than being the splittys poorer sibling

 

[Araon]

I know what you mean I got my 1303s in 93 and prices were starting to get silly, and then my 74 bay was stupidly cheap. There again maybe he knew what was under the belly pans :x